Slide 1: Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Slide 2: Where We’ve Been

Slide 3: Where We’ve Been – Costs Growth in State Corrections Costs $50,000,000,000 $45,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $25,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

Slide 4: Where Are We Going? Report Objectives  To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems  To examine the reasons for projected growth  To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending  To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Slide 5: Projection Formula 2011 State Prison Population = [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 – .364SES¥ – [1/HS graduation rate x .8003] JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

Slide 6: What We Found – National

Slide 7: National

Slide 8: National

Slide 9: Estimating Future Prison Costs  Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars – $23,876 per inmate  Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

Slide 10: What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011 $16,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000 $12,500,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $0 Operating Costs Capital Costs

Slide 11: Regions

Slide 12: State Highlights

Slide 13: State Highlights 10 Lowest-Growth States  Delaware 0%  New York 0%  Connecticut 0%  Maryland 1%  Louisiana 4%  Wisconsin 5%  Tennessee 5%  Missouri 6%  Massachusetts 6%  Rhode Island 7%

Slide 14: Key Drivers and Trends  Population growth, esp. in West  Growing admissions (1980-1992)  Longer length of stay (1992- )  Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)  Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)  Rising age (up from 31 to 34)  Methamphetamine cases  Mental health cases  Workforce recruitment and retention  Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Slide 15: Tremendous State Variation

Slide 16: Tremendous State Variation Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population Admissions, Length of Stay Determined Largely by Policy Choices State Policy Choices = State Prison Population / Costs

Slide 17: CT –Targeted Reform  Problem  Identified technical violators as driver  Solution  Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%  Hired 96 new POs  Started 2 new supervision/service programs  Public awareness campaign  Result  Highest growth to flat  Crime drop parallel to national reduction

Slide 18: NC – Broad System Reform  Problem  Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms  Solution  Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders  Abolish discretionary parole release  Establish comprehensive guidelines  Create state/local partnership for low risk  Result  One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack  Crime fell in sync with national drop  Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Slide 19: Exciting Time in Criminal Justice  Advances in science of behavior change  Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment  Motivational Interviewing  Contingency Management  Advances in supervision technology  Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens  GPS monitoring  Broad public support for alternatives  Trend toward Managing for Results  Budget pressure  Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Slide 20: Implications Central Question is Being Reframed OLD “How can we demonstrate that we’re tough on crime?” NEW “How can we deliver taxpayers the best return on their investment?”

Slide 21: Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

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