Public Safety and Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

Leave a comment

Slide 1: Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Slide 2: Where We’ve Been

Slide 3: Where We’ve Been – Costs Growth in State Corrections Costs $50,000,000,000 $45,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $25,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000 $0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

Slide 4: Where Are We Going? Report Objectives  To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems  To examine the reasons for projected growth  To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending  To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Slide 5: Projection Formula 2011 State Prison Population = [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 – .364SES¥ – [1/HS graduation rate x .8003] JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

Slide 6: What We Found – National

Slide 7: National

Slide 8: National

Slide 9: Estimating Future Prison Costs  Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars – $23,876 per inmate  Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

Slide 10: What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011 $16,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000 $12,500,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $6,000,000,000 $4,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $0 Operating Costs Capital Costs

Slide 11: Regions

Slide 12: State Highlights

Slide 13: State Highlights 10 Lowest-Growth States  Delaware 0%  New York 0%  Connecticut 0%  Maryland 1%  Louisiana 4%  Wisconsin 5%  Tennessee 5%  Missouri 6%  Massachusetts 6%  Rhode Island 7%

Slide 14: Key Drivers and Trends  Population growth, esp. in West  Growing admissions (1980-1992)  Longer length of stay (1992- )  Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)  Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)  Rising age (up from 31 to 34)  Methamphetamine cases  Mental health cases  Workforce recruitment and retention  Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Slide 15: Tremendous State Variation

Slide 16: Tremendous State Variation Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population Admissions, Length of Stay Determined Largely by Policy Choices State Policy Choices = State Prison Population / Costs

Slide 17: CT –Targeted Reform  Problem  Identified technical violators as driver  Solution  Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%  Hired 96 new POs  Started 2 new supervision/service programs  Public awareness campaign  Result  Highest growth to flat  Crime drop parallel to national reduction

Slide 18: NC – Broad System Reform  Problem  Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms  Solution  Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders  Abolish discretionary parole release  Establish comprehensive guidelines  Create state/local partnership for low risk  Result  One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack  Crime fell in sync with national drop  Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Slide 19: Exciting Time in Criminal Justice  Advances in science of behavior change  Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment  Motivational Interviewing  Contingency Management  Advances in supervision technology  Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens  GPS monitoring  Broad public support for alternatives  Trend toward Managing for Results  Budget pressure  Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Slide 20: Implications Central Question is Being Reframed OLD “How can we demonstrate that we’re tough on crime?” NEW “How can we deliver taxpayers the best return on their investment?”

Slide 21: Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Advertisements

What is the Price of Failure? A Comparative Analysis of Prevention and Delinquency in US Prisons

Leave a comment

Slide 1: What is the Price of Failure? A Comparative Analysis of Prevention and Delinquency Mary Magee Quinn and Jeffrey Poirier, American Institutes for Research National Center on Education, Disability, and Juvenile Justice (EDJJ)

Slide 2: Overview s The role of school-based prevention in meeting the needs of at-risk youth s The importance of ensuring at-risk youth are educated s The financial and social costs of not preventing juvenile/adult crime s The impact of the justice system on juvenile offenders and their families s The long-term benefits and savings of reduced delinquency

Slide 3: Why Prevention? s An 18 year old is five times more likely to be arrested for a property crime than a 35 year old s In 1997, 15-19 year olds comprised 7% of the overall population but 1 out 5 arrests for violent offenses and 1 out of 3 property crime arrests s Overall, teenagers are responsible for 20- 30% of all crime Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999

Slide 4: Levels of Prevention Tertiary Secondary Primary

Slide 5: Primary Prevention s Strategies applied to intact groups or populations, such as a school-wide discipline plan used to help all students in a school meet behavioral and academic expectations s Focuses on avoiding the initial occurrence of a problem

Slide 6: Reading Programs s Youth in Correctional Facilities x Median age 15.5 years x 9th grade (placement) x 4th grade reading level (mean) x More than 1/3 read below 4th grade

Slide 7: Adult Literacy 40 35 30 25 Completely 20 Illiterate Functionally 15 Illiterate 10 5 0 General Incarcerated Population Adults

Slide 8: Reading Programs s Prison-based literacy programs are significantly more effective than boot camps or shock incarceration s The more education prisoners receives, the less likely they are to be re-arrested or re-imprisoned

Slide 9: Literacy s Quality reading programs can reduce recidivism by 20%. s Probationers had significantly lower re-arrest rates (35% vs. 46%) s Recipients of GED had significantly lower re-arrest rates (24% vs. 46%) s Inmates with 2 years of college (10% vs. 60%)

Slide 10: Education Level Findings from Texas study, 1994 60% 50% 40% Without degrees All Degrees 30% AA 20% BA 10% MA 0% Recidivism Rates (1990-1991)

Slide 11: Levels of Prevention Tertiary Secondary Primary

Slide 12: Secondary Prevention s Focus on preventing repeated occurrences of problem behavior through more targeted interventions s Efforts provide additional support when universal preventative efforts are not sufficient

Slide 13: Secondary Prevention s Example: students who have more than one disciplinary referral in a given month for fighting may be provided with special instruction in conflict resolution or social skills

Slide 14: High/Scope Preschool Programs s Benefits x fewer acts of misconduct x higher grade point averages x higher rates of employment x lower rates of welfare dependence

Slide 15: High/Scope Preschool Programs s Costs x $39,278 per child x $964 increased need for funds for secondary education programs s Savings x reduced need for special education x reduced crime rate x $6,495 lifetime tax payments

Slide 16: Tertiary Prevention s Most intensive level of support and intervention s Attempts to reduce the impact of a condition or problem on the individual’s ability to function in the least restrictive setting

Slide 17: Tertiary Prevention s Example: the needs of students identified as having an emotional/behavioral disability are addressed through special education services and behavior intervention plans so that they may benefit from the educational program s Includes outside agency support

Slide 18: Home Visit Programs s Costs x $2700/year from third trimester through age 2 x $6000/year for day care and early childhood education s Benefits x 11 serious crimes prevented per million dollars spent Source: RAND, 1996

Slide 19: Parent Training s Costs x $500/year per family for instruction and supplies x $2500/year per family for program management s Benefits x 157 serious crimes prevented per million dollars spent Source: RAND, 1996

Slide 20: High School Graduation s Adult Inmates in State Facilities x 70% have not completed high school x 46% have had some high school x 16.4 % have had no high school at all Source: U.S. Department of Justice, 1996

Slide 21: Graduation Incentives s Costs x $3130/year for 4 years for each youth s Benefits x 258 serious crimes prevented per million dollars spent on incentives Source: RAND, 1996

Slide 22: Delinquent Programs s Costs x $10,000/year per youth (conservative estimate) s Benefits x 72 serious crimes prevented per million dollars spent

Slide 23: Comparison of Number of Prevented Serious Crimes per Million Dollars 300 258 250 200 157 150 100 72 50 11 0 Home Visits Parent Training H.S. Graduation Incentives Delinquency Programs

Slide 24: Students with Disabilities  The arrest rate among high school dropouts with disabilities was 56%, compared with 16% among graduates, and 10% among those who “aged out” of school.  Among dropouts with serious emotional disturbances, the arrest rate was 73% three to five years after secondary school Source: SRI International, 1992

Slide 25: The Costs of Crime for Communities and Victims s Lost property and wages s Medical and psychological expenses s Decreased productivity s Pain and suffering s Decreased quality of life/societal well- being (e.g., fear of crime, changing lifestyle due to risk of victimization)

Slide 26: The Costs of Crime for Communities and Victims s Incarceration (prisons/correctional facilities) s Increased demand for criminal/civil justice services s Opportunity costs: since greater percentage of government expenditures must be dedicated to crime-related costs, fewer resources are available for education/other government services

Slide 27: Who incurs these costs? s Crime victims s Government agencies s Taxpayers s Society

Slide 28: Cost of Victimization s 23% of all U.S. households victimized s Crime victims lost $17.6 billion in direct costs in 1992 (includes losses from property theft/damage, cash losses, medical expenses, and amount of pay lost because of injury/activities related to the crime) s Crimes included: attempts and completed offenses of rape, robbery, assault, personal and household theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft Source: U.S. Department of Justice, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1994

Slide 29: Expenditures for the Criminal and Civil Justice System s Total: $147 billion in 1999 (police protection, corrections, and judicial/legal activities) s 309% increase from 1982-1999 s Local government funded half of these expenses (note: local government funded 44% of education costs in 1999) Source: U.S. Department of Justice, 1999

Slide 30: Expenditures for the Criminal and Civil Justice System s States contributed another 39% s Criminal and civil justice expenditures comprised 7.7% of all state and local expenditures Source: U.S. Department of Justice, 1999

Slide 31: Costs of Juvenile Crime s A life of crime costs society $1.5-$1.8 million s Cost of juvenile crime: x Victim costs: $62,000-$250,000 x Criminal justice: $21,000-$84,000 3 Total: $83,000-$335,000 x For every 10 crimes committed, only one is caught x Chronic juvenile offenders are very likely to become involved in the adult system Source: Cohen, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1998

Slide 32: Costs of Dropping Out s In 1991, annual cost of providing for youth who fail to complete high school and their families: $76 billion s Lost wage productivity: $300,000 Source: Joint Economic Committee, 1991

Slide 33: Cost of Effective Prevention and Intervention Source: Washington State Institute for Public Policy, 2001 Program Net Cost Taxpayer Taxpayer Benefit-to- per Savings Savings Cost Ratio Participant and Victim Benefits Early Childhood $8,936 -$4,754 $6,972 $1.78 Education for Disadvantaged Youth Quantum $18,964 -$8,855 $16,428 $1.87 Opportunities Program Multidimensional $2,052 $21,836 $87,622 $43.70 Treatment Foster Care

Slide 34: The Costs of Crime for Juvenile Offenders s Separation and isolation s In correctional settings: x Negative behaviors are often reinforced x Higher rates of sexual victimization and suicide x For youth with cognitive disabilities, it is difficult to un-learn the prison experience x Lack of special education services and an absence of skill-based programming

Slide 35: The Costs of Crime for Juvenile Offenders s For youth who are sent to adult facilities, there are higher rates of re-offending and the number of serious crimes committed s More youth today are being referred to correctional settings for behaviors that are mental health related s Competing missions within the juvenile justice system (protection v. rehabilitation) s The juvenile court is not familiar with the impact of mental health/cognitive disabilities on behaviors

Slide 36: The Cost of Ignoring Families s Family involvement (surrogates, extended family, etc.) and stability are critical to the success of prevention and corrections programs s The family will be a part of the youth’s life long after the professionals leave s When parents do not have the skills/knowledge to advocate for their child’s learning/mental health needs, their children are more likely to drop out of school and become involved in the justice system

Slide 37: The Cost of Ignoring Families s Families are seen as the problem and not part of the solution, leading to increased reliance on foster care and costly, ineffective multiple placements s Families become distrustful of the systems that have failed their children often for many years s The rate of recidivism is impacted by the degree to which youthful offenders have a stable adult in their lives

Slide 38: Conclusion s Prevention/intervention programs for at-risk youth will not eliminate juvenile crime, but can reduce it and will bring net benefits to both society and the juvenile s Have a long-term vision when considering the costs of prevention programs s Consider the impact of incarceration on juvenile offenders and the role of families

WWW.EDJJ.ORG

The Torture Connection – Abu Ghraib Inspired Porn from Iraq

Leave a comment